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| Retail figures just lobby fodder? |
   
Posted Date: 07/02/2012
By Robert Stockdill
It took less than an hour on Monday for three different interpretations of the latest ABS retail sales figures to hit our in box.
All differed in degrees from Inside Retail’s take.
Admittedly we tend to take an optimistic approach where possible - talking the industry up rather than down. Unfortunately that does not override the necessity for us to be the publisher of bad news and often negative opinions when such opinions have obvious news value. And at times that leaves us facing reader execution as the messenger rather than the opinion maker.
Let’s look at some facts that the ARA, the NRA and the ANRA can’t argue with:
* Retail sales in December 2011 were 3.0 per cent higher than in December 2010.
* Australia’s inflation rate was a little higher overall, driven largely by energy costs. But in the food sector there was heavy deflation.
* There are some month on month indicators apparent from December’s figures, even if you don’t consider the ABS’ oddly contrived month-on-month retail sales trend data is relevant (let’s face it: no-one outside the ABS actually understands how it is prepared or what it really means, but the majority of us are too sheepish to admit as much). Firstly apparel sales appear to have staged a recovery. Secondly department stores appear to have lifted their volumes, albeit by a small degree.
* More Australians shopped online in December than ever before (according to data from sources other than the ABS). Some of this spend went offshore but it is apparent the majority still passed through Australian retailers’ bank accounts... but almost certainly under the radar of the ABS which is poorly resourced for its role as an independent analyst of retail data.
So what were the reactions to Monday’s ABS data?
The NRA was first off the block claiming the data clearly showed the need for “urgent reform” of the “unfair GST and excise arrangements which favour overseas businesses”. As if online sales by offshore companies was the key driver of the retail spending trend sin Australia in 2011.
Executive director Gary Black did, to be fair, concede the December data confirmed that Christmas 2011 ”could have been worse”.
He warned the Federal Government that its “failure to act to level the customs and tax playing field is causing severe harm to the Australian retail sector and is resulting in the shift of thousands of Australian jobs offshore”.
The ARA focused on “dismal” year on year growth for calendar 2011 - well below inflation at 2.6 per cent.
Executive director Russell Zimmerman said the data confirmed predictions from the ARA of a soft Christmas, but conceded there was “a welcome monthly boost for fashion retailers”.
“The monthly boost in clothing and footwear (3.5 per cent) was welcomed from businesses who have been suffering all year but mainly due to retailers discounting heavily to get shoppers through the door both before and after Christmas,” he said.
However month on month figures for December 2011 and 2012 showed fashion and department store sales were in decline, “perhaps due to the cooler weather experienced in some capital cities in the lead up to Christmas”.
Zimmerman said flat trade figures showed consumers weren’t really convinced by interest rate cuts over November and December, which strengthens the case for a further rate cut from the RBA this week.
ANRA CEO Margy Osmond, representing the ‘big end of town’, joined in the warnings over job losses if sales did not pick up soon.
"I think we're now starting to look at some very dangerous territory in terms of retailers having to close their doors and perhaps a significant loss of jobs," Osmond said.
"Retail employs over 1.2 million people across Australia. It's the biggest private sector employer and it employs people across the state.
"So yes if we see these same levels of consumer spending coming into this year, it's going to mean jobs in the sector, there's no doubt about it."
And it was Osmond who popped our balloon of optimism, referring to the year on year December growth: she said most of that can be attributed to food purchases rather than retail spending across the board.
"Unfortunately, when you put this Christmas on last Christmas, while we've seen a bit of an increase between the two of them, it really has to be put down to restaurants and takeaway, as opposed to a reality of deep improvement within the retail sector," she said.
So what can be taken from the reactions to the official data?
Firstly, it takes so long for the data to be collated and released that it’s not only out of date by the time it hits the wires, everyone has pretty much pre-empted it with their own usually accurate predictions anyway. (By comparison, Hong Kong released its January data this week!).
Secondly, there are so many agendas and hobby horses in the retail sector right now - not to mention a battle for headlines between what amounts to far too many retail representative groups in Australia trying to stake their claim to be the most authorative - that the ABS Data Day has become something like the release of a fresh federal Government voter intention opinion poll - an opportunity for analysts, lobby groups and commentators to spruik their theories.
One has to wonder if we really need the data for practical purposes anymore or if it merely serves the purpose of arming the lobbyists. |
Tuesday, February 07, 2012 by Robert Stockdill
Lindsay, we'd love to, but the ABS does not break down the data beyond very broad categories. - REd
Tuesday, February 07, 2012 by lindsay bowen
retail is a very big church
could inside retail please publish the breakdown of sales figures by category, as their is a lot more to life than department stores, apparel, and food etc. homeawares is also a big category and their is a difference between electrical, furniture etc.
lindsay
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